Legendary Stock King: Guizhou Moutai Crashes!
Around the Mid-Autumn Festival, Kweichow Moutai encountered a "three-day bear market," with its stock price hitting a new low in nearly two years on September 18.
This is not the first time Kweichow Moutai has faced a continuous sell-off in recent years.
Previously, from October 10 to October 31, 2022, the stock price of Kweichow Moutai fell by nearly 30% over 16 trading days.
However, this "collapse" is obviously more dangerous than the last one.
In 2022, the sell-off was due to an unverified "small essay" that circulated online, which mentioned a "ban on liquor" with unclear origins.
In this "ban on liquor," the name of Moutai appeared multiple times, and it was listed as the main target of the ban.
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But the small essay was not verified, and after the stock price of Kweichow Moutai hit bottom, it rebounded and once again stood at 1900 yuan in 2023.
This time, Kweichow Moutai is facing a "logic kill": as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, Moutai liquor is rarely cold.
According to today's liquor prices, the original Feitian Moutai fell 20 yuan to 2660 yuan on September 1, and by September 15, it fell to 2500 yuan.
Consumption has been downgraded, and Moutai and mooncakes are not selling well this Mid-Autumn Festival.
Not only has Moutai's price dropped, but other first-line liquors are also not selling well, and not only famous liquors are not selling well, but mooncakes are not selling well either.
According to Caixin, although major liquor brands have increased promotional efforts during this Mid-Autumn Festival, the industry generally feedback that sales are "not very good."
A decline in sales of two or three points year-on-year is a common phenomenon, and terminal channel merchants still face the situation of excessive inventory.
Some liquor merchants said, "It feels like this year's Mid-Autumn Festival is the weakest in recent years."
The mooncake market is also very bleak: according to reports, the mooncake market has been cold for the second year.
Last year's Mid-Autumn Festival mooncake sales fell by more than 10%, and this year's Mid-Autumn Festival is even worse: the data from the fast-moving consumer goods offline retail monitoring agency, Mashangying, shows that on the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2024 (that is, from August 14 to September 13), the sales of mooncake products in continuous stores (24 months) fell by nearly half compared to last year, with a year-on-year decline of 45.17%.
Such a phenomenon is not surprising.
Whether it is Moutai or mooncakes, the fundamental reason for the decline in prices and sales is that consumption has been downgraded.
Moutai and mooncakes both have obvious gift attributes.
In the past, every Mid-Autumn Festival, from enterprises and institutions to individuals, they would often buy some high-end mooncakes and liquor as gifts.
When everyone's income can't keep up, they will be more cautious in consumption.
In the past, they would give some high-end liquor or mooncakes, hoping to gain customer recognition and increase sales.
Now, even if you give it away, you may not get a response, after all, the customer's life may not be good either.
In addition, real estate has always been a big consumer of high-end gifts, and now, the sluggish real estate market has also affected the consumption of liquor and mooncakes.
Moreover, over the years, various levels of government have advocated living a tight life, and the demand for gift consumption has greatly decreased.
As for individuals, everyone's income growth is not optimistic, and the consumption of mooncakes and liquor for gifts is naturally saved as much as possible.
The liquor consumption market is rapidly shrinking, and the effect of Moutai's price stabilization measures is limited.
Over the years, China's liquor market has been shrinking in reality.
In 2023, the national liquor production capacity was 6.29 million tons, only about 46% of 2016.
From 2019 to 2023, the national liquor production capacity decreased by about 20%.
In order to maintain profit growth, listed companies in the liquor industry have generally pressed goods to distributors in recent years and raised the factory price.
The real consumption volume can't keep up, and the liquor industry is seriously "inverted," that is, the factory price is high, but the actual sales price is often lower than the factory price, and distributors can only "bleed" to complete the task.
At present, such a "play" can no longer be maintained.
In the first half of 2024, among the 20 A-share listed liquor companies, 16 saw a decline in profit growth year-on-year.
Under this situation, famous liquors represented by Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao can only adopt a "control of goods and price stabilization" strategy, reduce product supply, and even temporarily sacrifice sales volume to maintain price and brand tone.
On June 23 this year, several Moutai distributors confirmed that Kweichow Moutai will cancel the release and box sale of 12-bottle Feitian Moutai, in order to limit more scattered flying into the market.
In addition, the company also suspended the delivery of aged Moutai and fine Moutai.
Looking at the price trend of Moutai liquor, the effect of Moutai's control of goods strategy is limited.
According to today's liquor prices, on June 23, the price of 24-year-old original Feitian Moutai was 2420 yuan, and by September 4, it rose to 2620 yuan, but the latest price has fallen to 2500 yuan.
Last year's Mid-Autumn Festival was on September 29, 2023, and at that time, the price of similar products (23-year-old original Feitian Moutai) was 2970 yuan.
What was the price on the Mid-Autumn Festival the year before last (September 10, 2022)?
3210 yuan (22-year-old original Feitian Moutai).
From the overall trend, it seems inevitable that Moutai's price will slowly decline.
Of course, with the decline in stock price, Kweichow Moutai's valuation is cheaper, and its current dynamic P/E ratio is about 20 times, the lowest level since 2015.
As for whether it is an opportunity, it depends on personal opinions.